Nominating Warren Or Sanders Will Be A Political Pickett’s Charge Ending In A Glorious Democrat Defeat

The 15% moderate, independent voters in the middle, not registered Democrats or Republicans, will decide the next election.

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By David Grace (

[NOTE: I’ve previously written on this topic in my column but as we enter the primaries for the Democratic Presidential Nomination this issue bears revisiting.]

Winning This Election Is Vital To The Democrats

If the Democrats don’t get both the White House and the Senate, the Supreme Court will be under right-wing control for the next ten to twenty years. Game Over.

Who Most Democrats Would Like To Be President Is Irrelevant

Picking a successful Democratic nominee has nothing to do with which candidate any particular registered Democrat would prefer to become President.


Picking the nominee isn’t about the candidate YOU like best.

It’s all about and only about picking the candidate who is the most able to

  • (1) beat Donald Trump AND ALSO
  • (2) drag the highest number of Democratic House and Senate candidates to victory along with him/her.

In the choice between a Democrat who

  • (1) wins the White House and ends up with a Senate still under GOP control,
  • (2) a Democrat who wins the White House and ends up with a Senate under Democrat control, and
  • (3) a Democrat who loses the White House and the Senate

the candidate who is the party’s nominee absolutely MUST be the one who is most able to both win the White House and also bring Senate candidates to victory with him/her.

Faced with the reality of a possible Donald Trump victory and a GOP Senate, how much the Democratic Party faithful like that successful candidate is absolutely irrelevant.

The Election Will Be Decided By The Middle 15% Who Are NOT Democrats

No matter what, Trump will get between 40% and 45% of the vote.

No matter what, the Democratic candidate will get between 40% and 45% of the vote.

Winning the White House and the Senate has nothing — NOTHING — to do with which candidate registered Democrats like best.

It has EVERYTHING to do with picking the candidate that the independents in the middle 15% of the population like the best and dislike the least.

The roughly 15% of the population in the middle will decide this election, and they are not Democrats and certainly they are not progressives.

Whoever gets a majority of those people to show up and vote for their side will win.

Who Are These People In The Middle?

The middle 15% are middle-of-the-road, apathetic, mostly nonpolitical people.

They live in Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan, Colorado, Missouri, etc.

They don’t live in the big cities. They don’t live on college campuses. They live in medium-size towns and the suburbs.

They are not socialists. They aren’t progressives. Many of them are mildly Republican.

Most of them don’t much like Trump, but they also don’t much like taxes, government, and bureaucracy. They just want someone competent to make the country run smoothly without costing them a lot of money, starting a war, or taking away what they’ve already got.

They would like to see drug prices go down and wages go up.

They don’t want to see lots of new immigrants.

We know that some of them won’t vote for a woman and some of them won’t vote for a gay person, but we don’t know how many of them feel that way.

Who Will Get Most Of Their Votes?

The Democratic candidates who are most likely to get the largest number of the people who make up this 15% are white, male, straight, and moderate — Biden, Bloomberg, and Steyer.

  • No drama, nothing to be afraid of here.
  • Nothing in any of them to keep the lots of members of this 15% away from the polls.
  • Nothing to frighten them into voting for the GOP.
  • Nothing to rev up any wavering Republicans who might otherwise stay home and drive them to the polls the way Sanders and Warren will.
  • Nothing to upset wavering Independents and Democrats and keep them at home the way Sanders and Warren will.

It’s Not About Right Or Wrong. It’s About Reality.

I’m not talking about how things should be. I’m not talking about how I want things to be.

I’m talking about how things are for the 15% to 20% of the people who are not die-hard Republican or Democrat voters.

Do You Want A Boring Victory Or A Glorious Defeat?

If the Democrats want a glorious defeat, then all they need to do is pick Sanders or Warren. If they want a boring victory, they’re going to have to pick Biden, Bloomberg or Steyer.

I’m not saying that’s how the world ought to work. I’m saying that given the nature of the people in that 15% to 20%, that’s the way the world does work, and ignoring that reality will give the Congress and maybe the White House to the Republicans.

Nominating Warren or Sanders will be a political Pickett’s Charge* ending in a glorious Democrat defeat.

–David Grace (

*Pickett’s Charge was an infantry assault ordered by Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee against Maj. Gen. George G. Meade’s Union positions on July 3, 1863, the last day of the Battle of Gettysburg. Its futility was predicted by the charge’s commander, Lt. Gen. James Longstreet, and it was arguably an avoidable mistake from which the Southern war effort never fully recovered militarily or psychologically.

The farthest point reached by the attack has been referred to as the high-water mark of the Confederacy.

Wikipedia —

To see a searchable list of all David Grace’s columns in chronological order,

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Graduate of Stanford University & U.C. Berkeley Law School. Author of 17 novels and over 200 Medium columns on Economics, Politics, Law, Humor & Satire.

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